Naugatuck, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

048
FXUS61 KOKX 220006
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the New England Coast slowly drifts east tonight.
A warm front lifts to the north Monday night as a cold slowly
approaches, moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Low
pressure may impact the region late in the week into early next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The tonight period starts off with high pressure centered off the
New England Coast slowly pushing east, nosing in along the Eastern
seaboard and an upper level shortwave over the region pushing east
through the night. So, expecting dry conditions tonight.
Mainly upper level clouds early tonight gradually diminish. As
the high clouds diminish, it will set up another good night of
radiational cooling for the outlying areas, where lows in the
40s are expected.
Potential for sct to bkn stratus development late tonight into
Mom AM across interior and coastal areas from radiative and
advective mechanisms with light onshore flow regime. Potential
for patchy ground fog across outlying areas where stratus
doesn`t materialize.
Lows in the 50s expected elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The elongated area of high pressure over the area pushes offshore
Monday into Monday night. Dry conditions continue with sunshine and
just mid and upper level clouds from time to time. Temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than Sunday with air mass modification
taking place as a weak return flow ensues mainly out of the south
late in the day. With high pressure offshore Monday night dew points
begin to inch up some, therefore it won`t be as cool as previous
nights. Lows should mainly be in the upper 50s to low 60s, perhaps
some middle 60s in the metro area.
Enough ridging should hold Tuesday morning to preclude any rain, but
then is expected to break down further later in the afternoon and
into the evening as a weakening upper level shortwave approaches.
This will bring the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly north and west of NYC in the afternoon. It will be warmer and
more humid with temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s with dew
point readings back into the 60s.
As a cold front approaches there will be some extra lift and
instability which may bring the slight chance for thunderstorms
across the entire forecast area into Tuesday evening. With the
boundary moving through the area into the late night and early
Wednesday morning look for any instability to wane with perhaps just
a few lingering showers especially after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NBM was closely followed through the period.
Key Points:
* Appearing unsettled at times mid to late week as a frontal
  boundary moves through early Wednesday and stalls over the Mid
  Atlantic into the weekend.
* Rain chances persist through much of the period as weakening area
  of low pressure over the Ohio Valley drifts east along the stalled
  boundary. Timing and coverage of rainfall remains highly uncertain.
* Temperatures expected to largely remain near normal for late
  September, afternoon highs ranging from upper 60s to mid 70s,
  though dependent on extent of cloud cover and precipitation
  from the slow moving system to the west.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the New England coast will remain in control
through Monday.
VFR. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible all terminals late
tonight/early Monday morning, with guidance trending a bit more
aggressive with development from advective and radiative
mechanisms. Conditions expected to improve to VFR by mid to late
morning.
Light E/SE winds become light and variable overnight into early
Monday morning. Winds become late morning into early afternoon SSE-S
on Monday, increasing to 9-12 kt in the afternoon. Winds become
light S in the evening
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Moderate chance for MVFR ceilings late tonight into Monday
morning push. Occasional S/SE gusts to mid teens possible late
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY Night THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday PM: VFR through early evening, then MVFR or lower
ceilings possible late at night.
Tuesday-Tuedsay Night: MVFR possible with chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Showers and MVFR
may continue at night.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday-Friday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers each day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail on the coastal waters
through Monday morning. Ocean waves build to 4 to 5 ft Monday
afternoon and Monday night as small craft conditions become
increasingly likely into Tuesday with 5 to 6 ft seas possible on a
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. This is
predominantly from long period se swells from Gabrielle.
Otherwise, sub-advisory conditions are expected by the end of
Wednesday morning as seas should average closer to 4 ft as the winds
briefly shift to the NW behind the cold front. Sub-advisory
conditions then prevail for the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time throughout the
forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip current development on Monday as a long
period 3-5 ft SE swell arrives from Gabrielle, combined with 3
ft ese wind wave.
The risk likely remains high Tuesday thru Wednesday from a
continued 3-5 ft SE swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion