Mantorville, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS63 KARX 240624
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
120 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Outside of today, the docket is full of mild days through the
weekend and into the early part of next week. Some locations could
warm past 80 degrees. Also trending dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The EPS and GEFS gradually ease the upper level trough/low from the
great lakes today to the new england states by early Fri morning.
Broad upper level ridging then takes over with the long range
guidance now promoting stronger ridging for the weekend/start of
next week. WPC clusters over the past few days show this trend
fairly well, amplifying the ridge axis and holding it over the great
lakes through at least the early part of next week. Some potential
for a shortwave trough to slip west-east across the upper
mississippi river valley toward the later half of he next week.
> TEMPERATURES:
The upper level trough and mix of clouds will hold temps close to
their seasonable norms today. The ridge will promote warming by the
weekend, then hold that into the start of next week. 80-100% of the
EPS/GEFS warm above 70 degrees from Thu into next week with 25% of
the members pushing 80+ degrees for some (many?) locations - mostly
along/south of I-90 - from Friday onward. A prolonged period of mild
days for early Fall.
> RAIN CHANCES:
Not as much shortwave energy expected to ripple around the upper
flow today. Better low level lapse rates and relatively "deeper"
saturation holds across eastern WI. While the CAMS don`t produce any
QPF/convection, the mix of likely lift and moisture could spark
isold showers across parts of eastern WI. Locally, the forcing looks
even weaker than yesterday with not as much saturation and still a
low level capping inversion to deal with. Will trend forecast dry.
Aside from that, the ridge will work to keep the region dry for the
weekend into next week. Return flow, fetch of moisture ahead of mid
week shortwave could foster some rain chances - but the overall
pattern says its going to be a dry stretch of days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Fog and low stratus remain the primary aviation concern for tonight
and into the morning hours on Wednesday as low-level moisture
remains in places with a building nocturnal inversion. Currently,
deterministic guidance has been backing off on lower vsbys and cigs
considerably in the last few runs. However, given robust
probabilities (50-90%) for MVFR cigs in the recent HREF have kept at
least MVFR mention at KLSE with IFR mention at KRST. MVFR to IFR
cigs and vsbys will linger throughout much of the morning until
diurnal mixing begins to remove any low-level moisture towards noon.
Winds will generally remain light through the TAF period at under 8
kts.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....Naylor

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion