Imperial, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

982
FXUS64 KMAF 242244
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Fall-like temperatures (finally) show up for today and tomorrow.
- Widespread showers and storms expected across the higher
  terrain this weekend along with a threat for flash flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Much of this morning`s shower and thunderstorm activity has moved
east of our area. Some remnant activity persists from the Davis
Mountains into the Trans-Pecos. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue south of I-10 through the
evening, mainly from the Davis Mountains to the Lower Trans-Pecos
(20-40% chances). Aside from the rain chances, temperatures behind
last night`s front finally feel Fall-like! Highs today top out in
the 70s and low 80s pretty much everywhere except along the Rio
Grande (highs in the 90s can be expected). Lows in the 50s and low
60s can also be expected across much of the area. Likewise,
tomorrow`s temperatures are also expected to be seasonable, albeit a
couple of degrees warmer than today (highs in the low-to-mid 80s).
Rain chances are low tomorrow, mainly confined to the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend (10-20% chances). Enjoy the cooler
temperatures while you can, because a slight warming trend does
develop in the Long Term...
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A significant pattern change will bring widespread showers and
storms to the higher terrain this weekend along with a threat for
flash flooding. Weak mid level ridging will build across the
region late this week as upper troughing develops over the Desert
SW. Southeast winds at the surface will lead to upslope flow
across the higher terrain allowing for the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening through the weekend. The majority of this activity will
remain west of the Pecos River. Embedded disturbances within
southwesterly flow aloft will enhance overall convection at times
leading to an increased threat for flash flooding. Temperatures
even with the added moisture look to remain above normal through
the extended. Rain chances spread east into the Permian Basin
Sunday and Monday, although low (20%), as the upper trough lifts
into the Plains.
Zonal mid level flow returns next week so expect drier conditions
to return with temperatures remaining above normal. Unfortunately,
any cooler air will stay well to our north with no significant
cold front expected through the first week of October.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  85  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   67  90  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  86  63  90 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  78  60  79 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                    54  83  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    55  81  54  81 /  10  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     60  85  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   59  84  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     58  85  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...99

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion