200 FXUS64 KLZK 290511 AFDLZKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1211 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
-Sunny skies are expected through the upcoming work week with a few afternoon diurnal cumulus.
-Mainly dry conditions will prevail through most of the upcoming work week across the state.
-Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm averaging roughly 4 to 6 degrees for high temperatures through Friday.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Quiet weather conditions will prevail through at least Wednesday throughout the Natural State. Surface high pressure over northern Illinois early this morning will remain anchored over the same general vicinity through Tuesday, then slide southeast into the Ohio river valley by Wednesday and to the east coast by the end of the work week. The influence of the ridge will provide mostly sunny skies and dry conditions with light winds and some afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds each afternoon through the forecast period. Temperatures will remain above average through the period averaging roughly 4 to 6 degrees above the climatological normal for high temperatures through at least the end of the upcoming work week.
Model guidance does show a weak disturbance rounding the periphery of the surface ridge leading to isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, but confidence in this solution is low and would not be surprised if all POPs are pulled from future packages.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate through the period with widespread VFR conditions expected. The exception will be for a few hours around sunrise when some fog development is possible at some TAF sites. Winds will be light and generally from the E/NE.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 89 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 84 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 86 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 85 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 87 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 88 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 86 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 87 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 88 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 89 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 85 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 86 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
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.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...56
NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion