Chatom, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS64 KMOB 240500
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The southern portion of a a large posivively-tiled upper trough
extending from southeast Canada to the southern Rockies will swing
east-southeast with the base reaching eastern Texas by midnight
Thursday night. The trough then pumps on the brakes and devolves
into a small trough or a weak cut-off low over the southeast CONUS
over the weekend into early next week. A surface low pressure area
moving eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border will lift
northeastward and reach the eastern Great Lakes region by early
Thursday morning, with an associated weak cold front approaching our
region from the northwest. This front is expected to enter into our
area late Thursday night and stall near the coast on Friday before
making a slight push offshore Friday night. The front will then
meander over the northern Gulf into the weekend before eventually
dissipating early next week.
Severe thunderstorms...A band of mostly scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move into southeast Mississippi and inland
southwest Alabama this afternoon as PWATs improve to between 2.0-
2.25 inches west of the Alabama River. With a southerly low level
synoptic wind flow persisting along with plenty of sunshine, inland
temperatures will climb to between 90 to 95 degrees (5-10 degrees
above normal). As a result, the atmosphere will have had all day to
heat up with MLCAPE values reaching between 1200 to 1800 J/kg. The
best dynamics, however, will remain displaced northwest of our area.
SPC still has a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing the
northwestern portion of our forecast area for the afternoon/evening
hours. Some of these storms have the potential to become strong with
the highest gusty surface winds ranging from 45 to 55 mph, with
brief locally heavy downpours possible, but not likely. This
convective activity is expected to diminish by late evening before
additional development spreads toward the coastal sections late
tonight into Thursday, followed by numerous to widespread showers
and general thunderstorms reforming across all inland areas
throughout the day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
return on Friday.
The low temperature Wednesday night will be well above seasonal
norms in the low to mid 70s, or about 9 to 12 degrees above normal.
Lows will then remain above normal through the reminder of the
forecast. High temperatures cool to around seasonal norms Thursday
and Friday due to the higher rain chances, before rebounding to
slightly above normal over the weekend into early next week. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected outside of
locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with
occasional showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Friday.
Otherwise, a light southerly flow today will shift southwesterly
tonight and westerly on Thursday. A light offshore flow will occur
Friday night through much of the weekend as a weak frontal
boundary pushes offshore. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  85  68  86  65  88  65  89 /  50  80  60  40  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  87  72  84  68  86  69  88 /  30  80  70  60  20  10   0  10
Destin      76  86  72  84  70  86  71  87 /  20  60  80  70  30  10  10  10
Evergreen   71  87  66  86  63  88  62  90 /  40  80  60  50  10  10   0   0
Waynesboro  69  84  65  85  61  86  61  87 /  60  70  30  20   0   0   0   0
Camden      70  83  66  83  63  84  62  87 /  50  80  40  40  10  10   0   0
Crestview   71  87  68  85  65  87  63  89 /  20  80  70  70  20  10   0  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion