Antiville, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

641
FXUS63 KIWX 010632
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, but
  remaining well above normal.
- High temperatures rebound back into the lower to middle 80s for
  the weekend.
- Dry weather continues through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Underneath an upper ridge, which has been fairly stationary from
being offset by tropical systems in the Atlantic, we`ll continue to
have dry, rain-devoid airmass dominate our forecast. 40 degree dew
points were already observed on Tuesday with the backdoor front
having pushed through then. Shallower mixing today will allow for
cooler high temps, in the mid 70s to low 80s, when compared to
Tuesday`s highs, which were securely in the 80s. An increased
gradient could lead to some gustier winds between 15 and 20 mph, but
the still weak low level jet and shallower mixing should keep
gusts below 25 mph or periodic at best. Given the area is still
very green and these sub-25 mph gusts, any grass fires will
likely struggle to get out of control. Similar dew points are
expected again Thursday and highs are expected to be slightly
warmer with slightly warmer low level temps, with warm advection
commencing, but similar mixing to today. A weaker gradient
should keep wind gusts weak, which should weaken the fire
weather potential on Thursday. Continued warming of the low
levels brings us securely back into the 80s for highs on Friday,
but once again a weak gradient should limit wind gusts and,
therefore, overall fire weather potential.
By the time we get to next weekend, the surface high pressure system
that helped push the backdoor front into the area slowly meanders
southeastward so that the flow around it begins to carry Gulf
moisture into the CONUS. Friday night is when the 40 degree dew
points finally get pushed northeastward so would expect to see
fewer, if not no, 20 percent MinRH values. 30 percent values will be
widespread still though. The weekend is also the time that the
ridging across the country breaks down with the arrival of a trough
from the US West Coast. The track of the vorticity still takes it
northeastward, away from the area as the trough continues to run
into the ridge to our southeast.
There is some question around if there will be enough moisture to
overcome the antecedent dry air as a cold front pushes towards the
region on Monday to create rain. ECMWF model soundings indicate
there may be a dry mid layer that needs to be overcome, but this
could also be enough for just sprinkles/drizzle to form. Given this
better, but still questionable look for rain, am inclined to leave
the NBM`s 20 PoPs in there.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Strong mid/upper level ridge remains over the region through
the period. A dry, subsident, and stable airmass will ensure VFR
conditions with light easterly winds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...AGD

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion