Orillia, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

092
FXUS63 KDMX 301733
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Cumulus clouds have developed across parts of Iowa this afternoon
associated with a shallow plume of mid level moisture into the area.
The large blocking pattern across the central US will continue to
dominate sensible weather over Iowa throughout this week. Late
tonight and into Tuesday the western US trough will sink
towards the area, increasing convergence over western and
northern Iowa with a narrow moisture plume. While a few CAMs
squeeze out weak echos in simulated reflectivity, soundings are
fairly dry. A few sprinkles may occur with increasing cloud
cover, but any notable precipitation is unlikely. That cloud
cover may put a damper on temperatures by a few degrees, but it
will still be quite warm. Steady southerly flow through the
week will help keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, 10-15+
degrees above seasonal averages which are in the low 70s this
time of year. Precipitation chances return this weekend as the
western trough finally shifts east, however uncertainty remains
in terms of timing and placement at this time range and will
depend in some part on how the Atlantic systems evolve.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. High clouds
remain in place across the area, especially towards western
Iowa. Areas without cloud cover have seen deeper mixing this
afternoon with gusts near 20 kts, however most TAF sites are
clouded in and less likely to see gusts so have kept from TAFs
at this time.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion