Sandston, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

352
FXUS61 KAKQ 171914
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure lingers over the area this afternoon
before moving offshore by late tonight. A brief warmup is
expected by late week before a return to slightly below normal
temperatures this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Cloudy and dreary conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning.
- Drizzle to light rain is possible through tonight as the low
continues to linger.
-Weather conditions improve tomorrow as the low exits the area.
Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper low centered over the Mid-
Atlantic. At the surface, the low pressure system that continues to
bring these dreary conditions is centered over SE VA. Over the day
the heavier rain showers have tapered off but drizzle to light
showers are continuing as the low continues to linger. Temperatures
as of 2pm are in the middle to upper 60s across VA/NC and lower 70s
across the MD Eastern Shore. Through the late afternoon an d into
the evening the low is expected to start moving to the NE. However,
the light showers and drizzle are expected to continue. Not much QPF
is expected to fall with these showers and totals will be less than
.1" primarily across the the NW portion of the CWA.  Temperatures
tonight will struggle to fall as clouds and drizzle will remain
across the area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s.
For tomorrow, high pressure will finally move back into the area as
the low moves further off the coast. This high will bring in drier
and warmer weather conditions. Sky cover will slowly clear but remain
mostly cloudy to the east and partly cloudy to the west. High
temperatures for the day will climb into the lower 80s along and
west of I-95 and upper 70s East of I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Warm and pleasant weather conditions are expected Friday as high
pressure remains in control.
-Back door cold front expected Saturday bringing back seasonable
conditions.
A weak ridge will be centered over the area Friday. At the surface,
high pressure will remain in control helping to bring back some
warmer air which will lead to above seasonable temperatures for the
day. Highs Friday will be in the middle 80s across the area with the
possibility of some isolated locations nearing the upper 80s. With
the high pressure remaining over the area dry conditions under
mostly clear skies are expected. Over night temperatures will drop
down into the lower 60s inland and middle 60s along the coast. By
early Saturday a back door cold front is expected to move over the
area bringing temperatures back down to seasonable as well as a
possible chance of showers across the far west. Temperatures will be
split across the area with highs in the middle to upper 70s across
the north and lower 80s across the south. There is still much
disagreement within the ensembles and deterministic models on
chances of rain. At this time have continues with the NBM which has
a 15% chance of showers across our far western counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Cold front stalls across the coastline bringing chances of showers
along the coast.
As the cold front moves across the area a high pressure moving out
of Northern Canada will move over the New England coast. Ensembles
remain in disagreement with one another causing uncertainty in the
forecast. As the frontal boundary stalls across the coastline and
the high remains to the NE this could potentially lead to a CAD
leaving some of the areas much cooler than expected. However, with
the disagreement in the models continues to stick with the NBM for
temperatures and PoPS  for Sunday through Tuesday.  Pops remain
between 15 to 20% and are heavily confined to the coastline where
that frontal boundary is expected to stall. As for temperatures
highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However,
they could potentially lower as models come into better agreement
and confidence increases.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 152 PM EDT Wednesday...
A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions have been noted across the
area this afternoon. As the weak low pressure over the area
continues to slowly tries to move away it continues to bring
light rain showers/drizzle and lower CIGS. RIC this afternoon
continues to remain the only terminal with IFR conditions as the
light rain/ drizzle move out of the piedmont and over the
terminal. These light showers/drizzle will bring a brief
reduction in visibility. Winds this afternoon have lightened as
the pressure gradient has decreased. Winds this afternoon are
between 5 to 10 kt. Through the late afternoon and into tonight
IFR and LIFR conditions are expected to make its way across all
terminals with reduction in visibility and lower CIGS. CIGS are
expected to drop to LIFR conditions across RIC, PHF, and ORF.
While across SBY and ECG they will remain IFR. With the
drizzle/patchy fog this evening and tonight recent guidance has
visibilities remaining MVFR with the potential of some IFR
visibility possible near RIC. These flight restrictions are
expected to last through the night into tomorrow morning.
Outlook: The coastal low will continue to linger over the area
tonight, then moving offshore Thursday. As the low moves away
from the area, flight conditions should gradually improve
Thursday with dry and VFR conditions returning by Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories for elevated seas are in effect until 7 PM
this evening north of Cape Charles.
- Lighter winds and sub-SCA conditions expected Thursday and Friday.
The low pressure system that brought the strong winds to the area
yesterday has spun down and weakened considerably over
central/eastern VA today. With the low center W of the waters, the
wind direction is generally S-SE and speeds are only around 10 kt.
Earlier Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay were allowed to
expire given the reduction in winds. Seas have also fallen, but
remain 4-6 ft N of Cape Charles in the ocean. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through 7 PM this evening for these areas
as seas continue to diminish. Whatever is left of the low opens up
into a trough and slowly drifts NE of the area tonight, allowing
winds to become NW 5-10 kt. Similar winds are expected Thursday into
early Friday. Weak flow then prevails Friday and Friday night with
sea breezes dominating the wind direction in the afternoon.
High pressure builds N of the region (across SE Canada into New
England) this weekend. This will push a backdoor cold front through
the region early Saturday with a N-NE wind surge spreading across
the waters Saturday afternoon. Wind speeds of 10-15 kt are generally
expected but cannot rule out a period of 15-20 kt winds (with higher
gusts) along and just behind the front. Marginal SCAs are possible,
but not expecting anything significant for this time of the year.
This should also bring another increase in the seas, with 4-5 ft
expected at this time. Onshore flow and elevated seas then persists
into next week.
Rip Currents: A High rip risk continues at all beaches today,
becoming moderate everywhere Thursday. A Low risk is expected by
Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
Water levels and tidal anomalies have dropped significantly today
with the decrease in winds and seas. However, nuisance to perhaps
low-end minor flooding is possible along the tidal Rappahannock
and Potomac rivers, as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore (near Bishop`s Head and Crisfield). With all gauges below
minor, feel no need to issue an coastal flood headlines at this
time. Nuisance flooding is forecast to continue in these areas
through early Friday, though water levels will inch down with each
cycle.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET/KMC
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/KMC
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion